Russian indicators at the end of 2021 showed double-digit growth, however, not the highest among other markets. What prevented the market from setting a new record, and what the year 2022 will be like, Konstantin Tserazov, an independent expert, economist, ex-deputy head of global markets at Troika Dialog, told in our interview.
Despite the volatility and several waves of corrections, the market still showed a good result in 2021, the Moscow Exchange index showed an increase of 15.15%, and the RTS index rose by 15%. Among the positive factors, the expert called the rise in commodity prices, the improvement in the situation with the spread of COVID-19 at the beginning of the year, and good macro statistics. However, a new round of geopolitical tensions and the threat of new sanctions, as well as the tightening of monetary policy by world central banks, which provoked a cooling of investor interest in emerging markets, did not allow the market to stay at the highs reached in October, explained Konstantin Tserazov.
At the same time, the Russian market became one of the best in the world in terms of dividend yield among emerging markets in 2021. According to Otkritie Bank estimates, the dividend yield for 2021 is about 8-9%, among the most attractive sectors with double-digit dividend yield Konstantin Tserazov names the oil and gas sector, the metal and mining sector and the financial sector.
The beneficiaries of the increase in commodity prices were companies in the oil and gas sector and metals and mining, which, according to analysts at Otkritie Bank, added 25% and 7.4%, respectively. The chemical and petrochemical sector (+64%) became the absolute leader, the construction sector (+48.37%) and financial sector (+40%) showed good growth. The outsiders of the year, according to the analytical materials of Otkritie Bank, were the electricity sector (-15), telecoms (-10%) and the consumer sector (-3%), notes Konstantin Tserazov.
In 2022, according to the expert, investors should pay attention to dividend stories among commodity and financial companies, which can bring significant profits against the backdrop of rising commodity prices and accelerating inflation. “At the end of 2021, the Russian market is still undervalued — if the current situation continues, in 2022 we may see a renewal of historical highs,” predicts Konstantin Tserazov.